The ‘Hell of the North’ is always a tough one to call
- By John Wilcockson
- Published Apr. 11, 2009
- Updated Apr. 13, 2009 at 8:00 AM UTC
Only a few riders are capable of winning Sunday’s 107th edition of Paris-Roubaix, and the number of favorites gets even smaller when you consider the strength of their teams. Given that premise, the winner should come from the Columbia-Highroad, Quick Step, Rabobank or Saxo Bank teams. And that means that George Hincapie, Tom Boonen, Stijn Devolder, Juan Antonio Flecha or Fabian Cancellara will be on the top step of the podium in the Roubaix velodrome Sunday evening.
Known as the Queen of the Classics, the 259km Paris-Roubaix is perhaps the most difficult race to win because of the length and difficulty of its 27 cobblestone sections. But when a contender has strength in numbers, he can usually shake off a crash or the occasional puncture. Teammates can help rescue a fallen leader and pace him back to the group, or in the event of a flat tire, a domestique can hand over one of his wheels, or even his whole bike.
The other advantage of having a teammate or two with you when the lead group has become whittled down to say a dozen riders in the final two hours is the tactical advantages they bring. This is why the teams run by the wily Belgian manager Patrick Lefevere — currently the boss of Quick Step, the successor of the Domo and Mapei teams — have won nine of the past 14 editions of Paris-Roubaix.
Lefevere, and his current directeur sportif Wilfried Peeters, know how to control the race by putting one of their men into a breaking away and then forcing other teams to chase. And if the break is caught, they are ready to counterattack. This year, Quick Step has three potential winners in the Belgians Boonen and Devolder and Frenchman Sylvain Chavanel — who is returning to the Roubaix cobbles after several years’ absence.
“I feel as if I am recommencing my career because I raced Paris-Roubaix when I was much younger,” said Chavanel, 29. Last Sunday, in the Tour of Flanders, he was Quick Step’s rabbit in the long breakaway to which teammate Devolder bridged and then went on to win.
Interestingly, when Devolder was asked whether he could win at Roubaix, he said “Why not?” That answer was almost sacrilege in the world of Flemish cycling, especially after Devolder took Flanders for the second year running. Boonen is still the team’s big star, and he dearly wants to win at Roubaix for the third time after his victories in 2005 (ahead of Hincapie and Flecha) and last year (when he out-sprinted Cancellara and Alessandro Ballan).
Asked about new teammate Chavanel, Quick Step team leader Boonen said, “Chavanel has the potential to there in the final in Paris-Roubaix. He was on good form last week, and he should be good again on Sunday. So starting with three men who can win the race makes a big difference to our chances.”
Two riders they won’t have to worry about are world champion Ballan, who is not starting this year because of a virus, and 2007 winner Stuart O’Grady, who is out through injury. This is somewhat of a blow for Saxo Bank leader Cancellara, who owed his place in last year’s winning break to the earlier work O’Grady had done to neutralize attacks.
As for Cancellara, he is coming back to form after a sickness that laid him low at the Tour of California in February. “I don’t have any results on the table,” he said Friday evening, “but I feel that I’m getting better and better. The team is stronger than before and I feel we’re going to be in the front. I start the race to win it but I don’t know if this is possible.”
Cancellara, the 2006 Roubaix winner, did not defend his title at Milan-San Remo last month, and in last Sunday’s Tour of Flanders, he snapped his chain on the ultra-steep Koppenberg climb and had to abandon; and then on Wednesday he flatted when looking strong in the lead group of Ghent-Wevelgem.
SRAM has supplied Saxo Bank with different chains this week, but of more concern to Cancellara is his not being able to finish a long race this year. That could be a handicap on Sunday. Commenting on others he expects to do well, Cancellara mentioned Hincapie and then said, “For me, in the Tour of Flanders, Flecha was riding much strong than other riders, and he will be there on Sunday.”
Flecha, who has twice finished on the Roubaix podium, is another who had bad luck last year. His Rabobank teammates were either not strong enough to help when the Spaniard fell in the gnarly Forest of Arenberg section of cobblestones, or didn’t wait for him. The Dutch team won’t make the same mistakes again, especially with younger, strong riders like Joost Posthuma and Sebastian Langeveld to help out.
Columbia’s Hincapie broke a wheel last year when he was ideally placed to shoot for the win. Asked what he expected will be different this year, the 35-year-old American, starting the Hell of the North classic for the 14th time, said, “The difference this year, I hope, is that I have good luck, not bad luck. And if I feel as good as I did last year I’ll be up there in the final. I don’t want to think that Boonen can beat me in a sprint [like he did in 2005], so, ideally, I want to arrive ahead of him on the velodrome.”
That was a bold statement by Hincapie, who said he was psyched to have Michael Barry back at his side for Paris-Roubaix — the Canadian last did the race for him in 2005, the year Hincapie was second. Also in great shape to assist Hincapie on Sunday are Germany’s Marcus Burghardt and Marcel Sieberg, Austria’s Bernhard Eisel, and the winner of Ghent-Wevelgem, the Norwegian prodigy Edvald Boasson Hagen.
With so many strong riders this year, Columbia is every bit as powerful as Quick Step, perhaps even stronger, and this could lead to Hincapie finally winning the race he has always done well at. “George really knows what he does to prepare for a race, and every race he comes to he’s ready,” said his team manager Rolf Aldag. “That’s why I prefer him not to race too much. Then he’s mentally fresh and really balanced in his mind and ready to go for the big goals.”
Hincapie’s has never had as much confidence— a factor that’s so important in bike racing, especially in the spring classics, his biggest goals of the year. One man who has learned that fact this year is the Australian-German Heinrich Haussler, who has been runner-up at the season’s first two majors: San Remo and Flanders.
Asked about his one previous appearance at Paris-Roubaix, in 2008, Haussler said Saturday, “Not too good an experience my first year here; I was 58th. But this year has been so totally different. I’ve been on such a high level since January. I’m feeling a bit tired now, but I should be okay for tomorrow.”
Haussler then indicated that he thought his British teammate Roger Hammond (who was third at Roubaix in 2004) and his Norwegian colleague Thor Hushovd (who crashed when sprinting for third at last week’s Tour of Flanders) will both be better than him this Sunday. “For me, Roger and Thor are gonna be up there tomorrow,” Haussler said, “so I just hope I can start giving back to the team what they’ve been giving me the last three months.”
The weather should not be a factor in Sunday’s Paris-Roubaix. Some light rain showers are possible in the morning, but temperatures will be in the 60s Fahrenheit. However, there will be a head wind for most of the race, with north winds forecast to be blowing at 15 kph. That won’t help breakaways, so expect a small group to sprint out the victory on the velodrome — and if Boonen doesn’t make it with the winning break, Hincapie just might finally pop out the Champagne in Roubaix.
RACE NOTE: Besides Team Columbia’s Hincapie and Barry, there are eight other North Americans competing in this year’s Paris-Roubaix. Three Americans are on the Garmin-Slipstream squad: Steven Cozza, Michael Freedman and Will Frischkorn; and five more on BMC: Brent Bookwalker, Toni Cruz, Jeff Louder, Ian McKissick and Jackson Stewart.
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FILED UNDER: News / Road TAGS: Paris-Roubaix
John Wilcockson
Former VeloNews editor at large John Wilcockson has reported on the Tour de France for more than forty years. He is also the author of a dozen books, including 23 Days in July, one of ESPN’s “Top 10 Sports Books of the Year.”