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Hinault, Anderson detail final stages

by VeloNews.com

• July 18, 2009
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The 2009 Tour de France turns vertical Sunday with the second of three summit finishes that will go a long way toward deciding who wears the yellow jersey in Paris.

Everyone seems to have an opinion on what’s going to happen next, but no one will really know until the final climb up Mont Ventoux next weekend.

That uncertainty has built huge anticipation ahead of the final week of racing. The GC is still wound up tight and, despite Astana’s stranglehold on the leader board, the race could still be won by the daring.

To find out what might happen, our colleague and former VeloNews European correspondent Rupert Guinness from the Sydney Morning Herald searched out two of cycling’s most daring riders. Bernard Hinault, a winner of five Tours and the last Frenchman to win his national race, and Phil Anderson know a thing or two about racing the Tour.

Here’s how they see the defining moments of the decisive final week of racing:

Sunday, Stage 15

Pontarlier to Verbier, 207.5km

Phil Anderson: Into the third week and still too early to be decisive for the general classification, or “GC”. The mountain-top finish will see the boys vying for a top overall place checking each other’s form. It will probably suit an early break of non-GC contenders.

Bernard Hinault: Any race favorite who has lost time on the GC should try to get the best out of this climb, which isn’t that easy at 8.8kilometres and an average gradient of 7.5 per cent.

Wednesday, Stage 17

Bourg-Saint-Maurice to Le Grand-Bornand, 169.5km

PA: A very important day – four first category climbs and very little flat. The next three days are the days the favorites have to be on form. I believe Alberto Contador and Lance Armstrong will be watching each other and even helping each other until the Stage 18 time trial. Moves are expected from Cadel Evans, the Schleck brothers – Andy and Frank – Carlos Sastre and outsiders like Christian Vande Velde. There will always be riders like Denis Menchov and Michael Rogers who think they can slip the field (as Evans thought) to take a stage and improve their overall position.

BH: The queen stage. We are at the peak with the Cormet de Roselend and a series of difficulties with the Col des Saisies, the Col de Romme which is a terrific monument and Col de la Colombiere before the Grand-Bornand. Riders should not race this with the next day’s time trial at Annecy in mind. This is the moment to strike first, make everyone suffer and then do what has to be done in the time trial.

Thursday – Stage 18

Annecy -Annecy. Individual time trial, 40km

PA: A pretty flat time trial where the Astana games will be on for young and old. Until now, Armstrong has played the team game, saying between clenched teeth that he is following team orders. What will the orders be that morning? I don’t believe Armstrong will hold back. Everyone is looking to the Mont Ventoux but in the time trial, the boys are on their own.

BH: It’s simple. You go to the end of the lake and return on the other side. The wind will be behind going there or back because the lake is in a valley. Strength will be decisive. It is flat all the way to (the 25km feed zone at) Talloires, so there will be no respite for anyone. This will give a good lead-in to the climb. Riders will have to ride to the max for the whole time.

Saturday – Stage 20

Montelimar to Mont Ventoux, 167km

PA: Possibly a gun-slinging match that could be a fizzer, depending on what happens. It will be hot, following small roads leading to the Mont, but it has the makings of an exciting finale. To see the Tour favorites hitting the “20km to go” banner will have made the waiting worth it. Armstrong has told the competition to wait for the final few days if they wish to beat him. Is Mont Venoux too late? I can’t see anyone moving up from too far back. Hopefully it will be the usual suspects taking left and right blows all the way to the top.

BH: If you go bad on Mont Ventoux, you will lose minutes a lot quicker than you gain them. The route has twists, which makes it hard to reach for a drink bottle or into a pocket for food. There is also the stress of being so close to the end of the Tour but so far. This can lead to fatal errors. Who is to say the time gaps will be so large after Annecy? Why not imagine a situation like Greg LeMond and Laurent Fignon in 1989 where a 50-second lead turned into an eight-second deficit in the time trial to the Champs-Elysees.