Inside the Tour – Watch for drama on stage 17

With two alpine stages done and the most difficult one coming up on Wednesday, the 96th Tour de France is fast revealing its harshest features. The double St. Bernard stage Tuesday saw longtime race leader Rinaldo Nocentini (AG2R-La Mondiale) and former white jersey Tony Martin (Columbia-HTC) fall out of the top 10, while Cadel Evans (Silence-Lotto) had his worst day ever at the Tour and dropped to 17th overall, 7:23 behind yellow jersey Alberto Contador.

Based on stage 16’s evidence, only three teams can now challenge the apparent superiority of Contador’s Astana squad. They are Garmin-Slipstream, which has Brad Wiggins in third (at 1:46) and Christian Vande Velde in 10th (at 3:59); Saxo Bank, with Andy Schleck in fifth (at 2:26) and brother Fränk Schleck in eighth (at 3:25); and Liquigas, with Vincenzo Nibali in sixth (at 2:51) and Roman Kreuziger in 12th (at 4:40).

For most of stage 16, the peloton’s tempo was set by Astana, with Garmin riders lined up behind them; but it was again Saxo Bank that exploded the main group on the last climb. Andy Schleck eventually used his teammates’ surge to make one of his fierce accelerations on the long, but not overly steep Petit St. Bernard. Initially, the only riders to respond were his brother, along with Wiggins, Nibali and Astana’s Contador and Andreas Klöden.

Second-placed Lance Armstrong was noticeably absent, but after the gap grew to some 30 seconds, Armstrong astonished race followers by speeding out of the back group, dropping the men who tried to go with him, and crossing to the leaders. His effort recalled images of his climbing style and speed during his seven-year reign as Tour champion — and it put a jolt into this Tour as we head into the demanding stage 17

The 169.5km stage from Bourg-St. Maurice to Le Grand Bornand features five major climbs, including the steepest uphills of this Tour. The climbing starts as soon as the peloton leaves the start, with an 18km ascent of the Cat. 1 Cormet de Roselend, and it’s followed immediately by another Cat. 1, the slightly steeper, 15km Col des Saisies — the climb where Floyd Landis began his now-infamous, long solo break to detonate the 2006 Tour.

Those first two climbs will almost certainly cut the lead group significantly, but expect the real attacks to begin with 65km to go when the race reaches the foot of the Cat. 2 Araches. On this 6.3km, 7-percent climb, which is new to the Tour, Saxo Bank, Garmin or Liquigas will have to start making their moves in an attempt to dislodge some of Contador’s teammates.

From Araches, there’s a false flat before the course drops back into the valley at Cluses, and heads to another climb new to the Tour, the much-feared Col de Romme. This is the Tour’s steepest Cat. 1 climb, threading its way up a steep, wooded mountainside on a narrow back road.

The Romme opens with a 10-percent wall that lasts for 3km before hitting a 12-percent pitch just before halfway. It continues with more 9- and 10-percent kilometers before the grade softens slightly at the top to give an average of 9 percent for its 9km length. There follows a short, sharp 5km drop into a deep valley before the stage hits its final climb, the steepest 7.5km stretch of the Cat. 1 Col de la Colombière — which usually has a gentler approach from the north.

All that remains is a steep 12km descent into Le Grand Bornand, with a short loop around the ski town to the slightly uphill finish — where Armstrong defeated Klöden in a memorable sprint finish to the final Alpine stage five years ago.

Judged on Tuesday’s performance, Armstrong might again be in at the kill on this year’s final alpine stage. But the battle that looks like being waged by the Schlecks, Wiggins and Nibali on the Araches, Romme and Colombière climbs should provide the most spectacular day of racing yet.

Race leader Contador should be in his element on the climbs, but the young Spaniard has yet to be tested at this Tour on a day of difficult, multiple climbs (and descents). In theory, Klöden and Armstrong should be able to keep him in yellow, but it won’t be easy.

Follow John’s twitter at twitter.com/johnwilcockson. His latest book, “Lance: The Making of the World’s Greatest Champion,” is available at www.velogear.com

FILED UNDER: News / Road / Tour de France TAGS: Tour de France